Part Six of Living Blue’s Analysis and Predictions for the 88th Texas Legislature.
To see the first five parts of this series or all of the predictions, go here. These are the races that were deemed “Safe Democrat” because no Republicans are running in these districts.
The following districts, Democrats are running unopposed in both the primary and the general election: HD36, HD40, HD48, HD77, HD78, HD80, HD90, HD101, HD103, HD104, HD107, HD110, HD116, HD119, HD137, HD139, HD140, HD141, HD143, HD144, and HD146.
While there are some other hot Democrat primaries, if they will be facing a Republican in the general election, I already made those predictions, which you can find here.
Here are the races we’ll be looking at today: HD38, HD75, HD79, HD100, and HD113.
Both of these candidates are attorney and Gracia has been a Justice of the Peace since 2015.
While Gracia’s platform issues on his website are rank-and-file Democratic issues, there are a few concerning points on Gamez’s platform that look more like Republican issues than Democratic issues. For one, she mentions “election integrity,” which has been code from the GOP for “voter suppression.” Then one line under “Border Security,” says “Despite any common misconception that the current political climate may have shown on Democrats – we do not support an “open border” policy.”
No kidding. But Democrats already know that just as we know, there aren’t “open borders.” So, it makes me wonder who she was writing that for. Perhaps she is trying to win Republican voters or moderates, but we don’t need politicians who pander to the lying right in our current political climate.
Gamez has raised $61,000, while Gracia has raised $67,000.
Gamez has 3,100 Facebook followers, while Gracia has 2,900.
Both have had active campaigns and have been shaking hands and kissing babies. I think this is going to be a close race. However, ultimately, I believe that Jonathan Gracia will win because he’s already been an elected official in the area, and name recognition will go a long way. Plus, I think most Democrats will see through Gamez’s pandering platform.
We used to like Mary Gonzalez a lot. She is a progressive who fought diligently for the rights of Texans in the House. That was until she was one of the first Democrats to restore quorum and allowed Republicans to pass all of their voter suppression and gerrymandering bills.
Running against her is former Socorro city council member Rene Rodriguez.
Surely, the early quorum return is what prompted Rodriguez to run. But, unfortunately, as election day is next week, Rodriguez doesn’t have a website or any presence on social media.
And while Gonzalez has raised $40,000, mostly from PACs and corporate interests, I was could not find any filings for Rodriguez, indicating he hasn’t raised any money at all.
Mary Gonzalez will win this election and go back to the Texas House. I genuinely hope she spends the next legislative session making up for her mistake in the 87th. Texas Republicans are fighting viscously to take away our rights, and we need Democrats who will stand up viscously for them.
The other two El Paso Representatives who returned from quorum early were Art Fierro and Claudia Ordaz Perez. They both betrayed Democrats in Texas by doing this. It is rumored that the people who came back from quorum early were promised safe seats in redistricting. Instead, Republicans redrew these two Democrats in the same district, pitting them against each other.
Fierro has raised $54,000, while Perez has raised $93,000. If the one who pulls in the most money wins, Perez will return to the House in the 88th Legislature. We hope that when she does, she works hard to redeem herself.
HD100 is in the heart of Dallas and is the seat left open by Jasmine Crockett’s bid to congress. I haven’t been following this race too closely, but there are four Democrats who are vying for this seat. It may go to a runoff.
The Democrats running are Daniel Clayton, Sandra Crenshaw, Marquis Hawkins, and Venton Jones.
Daniel Clayton has raised the most money and got the most endorsements by far. If it doesn’t go to a runoff, I predict he will win. However, if the race does go to a runoff, it would be between him and either Hawkins or Jones. Both of those candidates have raised an equal amount of money and endorsements. I’m predicting Clayton will win this district.
Progressive newcomer, Uduak Nkanga, has challenged HD113 incumbent Rhetta Bowers. We love Nkanga, her position, her spirit, and her drive. But, while we see don’t have any issues with Bowers, we’re ready to let the youth take over. That’s why we endorsed Uduak Nkanga for HD113.
However, Bowers has pulled in a mountain of money. But while Nkanga has pulled in only grassroots small donations, Bowers has pulled in significant contributions from PACs.
Bowers has the rank and file endorsements, like Planned Parenthood and Annie’s List. Still, Nkanga has got endorsements from progressive organizations like Our Revolution, Leftists for Office, and of course, Living Blue in Texas.
Nkanga is the underdog in this fight, but we know she would do amazing things if elected.
It’s a David and Goliath fight. One, we will be watching closely.
Are there any predictions left?
Not for Democrats in the House. There are a few hot Republican primaries I wanted to poke fun at. Still, it’s six days until election day, and I have given any analysis or predictions of the Senate. Can it flip? Probably not. Not this cycle, anyway, but I’d love to go through each race with y’all and talk about how they’re shaping up. I may even give out a few more endorsements.
(Of course, the Republican primaries are such a shit show, that they may be a lot of fun as well.)
We’ll see what I can get through in the next six days. Stay tuned.