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Harris County House Races – Predictions And Endorsements

Harris County House Races – Predictions And Endorsements

What will happen in the 2022 elections?

Of all the House Districts in Harris County, the only Republicans running unopposed is Sam Harless (R) in HD126 and Tom Oliverson (R) in HD130. We gave Harless a lot of shit last year about going to crowded events without masks, but his positions aren’t as fascist as some of the other Republicans in the Texas House. However, Dr. Oliverson has been problematic and will probably continue to be problematic, since he’s an anesthesiologist who uses his doctor hat to justify supporting bills taking away women’s rights. Someone will have to run against him and take him out in 2024.

There are two Republicans running for HD127 in the empty seat left by shamed-legislator Dan Huberty (R), as he is leaving the House to address his alcoholism.

On the Democratic side, Gene Wu (D) of HD137, Jarvis Johnson (D) of HD139, Armando Lucio Walle (D) of HD140, Senfronia Thompson (D) of HD141, Ana Hernandez (D) of HD143, MaryAnn Perez (D) of HD144, and Shawn Nicole Thierry (D) of HD146 all are running unopposed.

HD128.

This is Briscoe Cain’s (R) district. Cain was at the forefront of the racist attack on voting rights last year in the Texas House. Cain fancies himself as some type of Constitutional nerd, however, his voting record suggests he’s anti-Constitution. The Democrat running against Cain is Chuck Crews, a progressive with a background in the petrochemical industry. Living Blue in Texas spoke Crews a few weeks ago for our ‘Meet The Candidate‘ series.

In 2020 Cain had a Democratic challenger, Mary E. Williams, who lost by 27-points. I don’t remember Williams or the type of campaign she ran, which may say something about why there was such a deficit. However, it should be noted that this district had a 66.4% turnout in a presidential election. Some might say that’s good for Texas, but Collin County, in North Texas, had a nearly 80% turnout. In 2018 Briscoe Cain ran unopposed and the district turnout was only 50%. In 2016, a presidential year, HD128 also had a low turnout.

The demographics of HD128 after redistricting are 51% non-Hispanic white. Typically, districts that are more diverse vote Democratic. However, a history of low voter-turnout plagues this area. I’m calling this district a toss-up. If the Chuck Crews campaign and grassroots groups in this area bust their butts turning out the vote and you include the Beto-effect, Crews has a chance at flipping this district. That’s why Living Blue in Texas is endorsing Chuck Crews for HD128.

HD129.

HD129 will be a likely Republican seat. While in the last midterm election, the Democrat only lost to the incumbent, Dennis Paul (R), by 6-points; in 2020 it was 17-points. In terms of the incumbent, he’s a piece of furniture in the legislature, and his political career has thus far been unremarkable.

It’s important to note that in 2020 when he won by 17-points, this district had a 72% voter turnout.

After redistricting, this district remains majority non-Hispanic white. The Democrat challenging Paul is Kat Marvel. Aside from having a cool name, I haven’t seen much from her campaign, yet. She has until November to make an impact, which seems like a lot of time, but is it enough time to reach the 157,000 voters in this district, and convince them to vote for her? Maybe. It would take an amazing campaign to win this district. Hopefully, over the next few months, we’ll see Marvel jump out there.

HD131.

Long-time incumbent Alma Allen (D) has two Democratic challengers, Crystal Dillard, and James Guillory. This is a likely Democratic seat, however, there is a Republican challenger, Gerry Monroe, who doesn’t really have a snowball’s chance in hell. Monroe has the personality of a clown and won’t be taken seriously by this district.

Neither Dillard nor Guillory’s campaign has made enough noise to unseat a long-time incumbent. With less than three months until the primary election, my prediction is Alma Allen will win the primary in March, and then win re-election in November.

HD132.

HD132 incumbent, Mike Schofield (R), only won by a hair in 2020, three points, to be exact. In 2018, he won by 0.1-points. Did they do a recount?

Schofield’s voting record fell in line with the alt-right Republicans in regards to voting rights, women’s rights, local control, and public education. That means, for someone who just barely won, he went too far right to keep any moderate constituents he may have happy. There are two Democrats challenging Schofield for his seat, Chase West and Cameron Campbell.

Who is Cameron Campbell? I’m not sure. I haven’t been able to find a website or any social media accounts.

On the other hand, Chase West, who I’ve spoken with, multiple times, has had an incredible campaign, so far. His campaign has been doing all the things we would expect to see in a toss-up race, like HD132. While this race is a toss-up, I think that if West maintains the momentum he’s built until November, he can flip this seat. This is why Living Blue in Texas is endorsingChase West for HD132.

HD133.

The incumbent, Jim Murphy (R), is not seeking re-election for this seat. There are five Republicans facing off in the Republican primary in March, Mano DeAyala, Will Franklin, Bert Keller, Greg Travis, and Shelley Barineau. Would you believe that all five of these individuals are nearly carbon copies of one another?

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Houston Republicans are weird. They live in a blue bubble and still shout guns, babies, and racism. DeAyala is the Chairman of the Hispanic Republicans of Texas, Franklin is an oil and gas guy, Barineau wants to fight against radical leftists (like we have any of those in Texas), Keller was a Houston city councilman like 20-years ago, and Travis is a current Houston councilman.

After researching this race and what each candidate has been doing, so far, I’m predicting Travis will win the primary.

On the Democratic side, Mohamad Maarouf is the only Democrat running for this seat. Maarouf is a Houston educator. He has until November until the election, but his campaign hasn’t made much noise, yet. For now, I’m calling this race, probably Republican.

HD134.

The amazing Ann Johnson (D) is running for re-election. There are no Democrats challenging her, because why would they, she’s great. This is also why Living Blue in Texas is endorsing Ann Johnson for HD134.

There are two Republicans running for this seat, A. A. Dominguez, and Ryan Mcconnico. Who? I couldn’t find anything about Dominguez online and Mcconnico has a Facebook page he’s never made a post on. This is a likely Democratic seat and Johnson will be re-elected.

HD135.

The HD135 race is nearly a carbon copy of the nearly identical to the HD134 race. Incumbent, Jon Rosenthal (D) is a strong democrat running for re-election. This is why Living Blue in Texas is also endorsing Jon Rosenthal for HD135.

Like the previous district, Rosenthal is being challenged by two Republicans, Mike May, and Stephen Hagerty, neither of who have any type of online presence. This is a likely Democratic seat, and Rosenthal will be re-elected.

HD138.

The incumbent of HD138, Lacey Hull, had much of her dirty laundry aired in public during her first session in the legislature. Living Blue in Texas was the first media outlet to report on her divorce and alleged affair with fellow House member Cole Hefner. We also published leaked texas messages in which Hull said some awful things about fellow Republicans and implicated her friend, Valoree Swanson, in election fraud.

Hull is unpopular among both Republicans and Democrats.

Challenging Hull is Republicans Josh Flynn and Kristine Kalmbach. Kalmbach is a Christian Conservative mom. However, Josh Flynn is well-known in Republican circles. He’s active within the Republican Party in Harris County. He’s been on the Republican Executive Committee and ran for HD138 last election cycle and the school board before that.

There’s a good chance that Hull will lose this primary because she isn’t well-liked, including with Republican voters. So I’m predicting that Josh Flynn will win the HD138 Republican election.

On the Democratic side, Stephanie Morales is looking to claim HD138, which is a toss-up race. Morales is a strong progressive candidate, attorney and appears to have an active campaign so far. Living Blue in Texas is endorsingStephanie Morales for HD138, and I think she has a good shot at flipping this seat.

HD142.

Long-time incumbent Harold Dutton (D) is running for re-election in HD142. While this is a likely Democratic seat, there was some frustration with Dutton during this last legislative session, which is likely why Candice Houston (D) is challenging Dutton for this seat. Houston is a public school advocate and the Aldine American Federation of Teachers president.

Richard Varner is the Republican running for this seat. Varner does not have an online presence and won’t win because this seat is a long-shot for Republicans.

HD145.

Democratic incumbent Christina Morales is running for re-election. She is running unopposed in the primary and challenged by one Republican, Michael Mabry. I was unable to find any information on Mabry.

This seat is likely Democrat, and I believe Morales will win re-election.

HD147.

HD147 was left open by retiring Democrat Garnet Coleman. There are seven Democrats and two Republicans running for this open seat.

The Republicans Rashard Baylor and Damien Thaddeus Jones are Black Conservatives running for this seat in a primarily Black district. And while they seem willing to stick themselves out there, there are not enough people of color that will vote for the party of white supremacy to give either one of them a shot.

The seven Democrats running are Danielle Keys Bess, a long-time Houston activist; Dr. Reagan Denise Flowers, an education consultant; Somtoochukwu Ik-Ejiofor, I don’t know a lot about her background, but her website says that she’s worked around the legislature; Akwete Hines, a Houston educator; Jolando Jones, an ex-city councilwoman, and school board member; “Nam” Subramanian, a Houston educator; and Aurelia Wagner, a Navy veteran, and educator.

All Democratic candidates running are highly educated and passionate about their community. It’s such a crowded race that it’s hard to say what’ll happen, but this is one race we will be watching closely. This is a likely Democratic seat, and I expect one of these Democrats will go to the Texas House.

HD148.

The Democratic incumbent, Penny Morales Shaw, is seeking re-election. This is a likely Democratic seat, but there is a Republican challenger. Kay Smith (R) doesn’t have an online presence, which doesn’t matter because she won’t win anyway.

HD149.

Incumbent Huberto Vo (D) is seeking re-election. He is being challenged by Lily Troung (R), who also ran against him in 2020 and lost by nearly 20 points. This is a likely Democratic seat, and I expect Vo will win once again.

HD150.

HD150 incumbent, Valoree Swanson (R), could be Satan. As we discover over the last few years of reporting, Swanson is corrupt, has possibly committed election fraud, and bullies all of the other Republican women in the Texas House.

While the seat is probably Republican, we should pay attention to how this primary election goes. Swanson is challenged by three Republicans, Bryan Le, Valerie McGilvrey, and Debbie Riddle. I’m not sure who Bryan Le is, but I’ve been getting a lot of traffic from a website called therightvalerie.com, which appears to be a website from McGilvrey attacking Swanson, based on some of my coverage of her (which is fucking hilarious). Riddle’s husband is a previous Senate District committeeman, who has been elbows deep in Harris County Republican drama for a while, and Debbie has been by his side in the drama all along.

The lone Democrat running for HD150 is Ginny Brown Daniel; we don’t know much about Daniel yet. However, a strong candidate with an active campaign could flip this district because of the Republican drama, but they really have to have an amazing and strong campaign. Daniel has until November, so we’ll see what happens in this race.

Other House race.

If you were expecting an article with analysis and predictions for Collin County, Denton County, and North Texas, as I promised in Part One of my House races rundown, it’s coming soon. Stay tuned.

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