Former vice president of the USA Joe Biden leads the opinion polls, surpassing Donald Trump by 12 points.
At the same time, 50% of Americans are sure that they will not vote in the election for the current president. This level of support is extremely worrying for Trump and his team, who are hastily trying to change their current course in order to attract voters.
Trump’s rating actually froze at one point, as polls last month also gave him 41%. Biden’s performance, on the contrary, is growing: in May-June, he received about 52% of support from the Americans. Moreover, the latest study shows that 50% of respondents are sure that they will not vote for the incumbent president during the election, and only 39% of those polled are not ready to support his opponent.
In the 2016 elections, Trump demonstrated that he is able to overcome problems, but on the eve of the upcoming elections, he has extremely limited room for maneuver.
To win, he will need to try to convince those who are currently not inclined to support him, ”said Patrick Murray, head of research at the University of Monmouth, commenting on the results of the survey.
By the way, among Americans surveyed by the university, 85% are going to vote in the presidential election, about 10% of respondents are likely to vote, 3% have not yet decided, and only 1% are not going to vote.
Judging by the results of the survey, a serious signal for Trump is that half of the respondents clearly decided not to cast their vote for him. A similar situation was in 2016 when the Republican lost in the polls to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. But even then, the gap between them was not so big: by November 2016, Trump lost Clinton in polls by 2-3%, which can not be compared with Biden’s 12 percent margin.
However, another five months remain before the election, so the current picture may change more than once. The main problem for Trump will be attracting new voters to his side, but the main trump card of his campaign – the US economic success – is destroyed by the coronavirus pandemic, the fight against which has come to the fore for voters.
In particular, a request for pacifying the epidemic comes from older Americans – one of the risk groups for the virus. However, their desire runs counter to the backbone of Trump’s electorate, the less educated middle-aged workers.
The first group actively adheres to the continuation of restrictive measures to combat the virus, while the second cannot afford to switch to remote work, therefore, advocates further economic recovery.
In recent months, Trump’s policy as a whole is more focused specifically on the transition to the US opening, in particular, because of the need to restore the president’s economic trump card. However, this line does not look very positive, as the United States is experiencing a new outbreak of coronavirus. The number of cases sets new records every day, only over the last day in the country more than 52.2 thousand cases of infection were recorded, a day earlier this figure exceeded the mark of 50 thousand people for the first time.
In general, the public’s request to fight the virus appears apparent, as the United States continues to lead in the number of sick and dead in the world – more than 2.7 million and over 128 thousand, respectively.
To the president’s problems is added the situation with the protests of the African-American population, which broke out in June due to the death of George Floyd at the hands of the police.
Initially, the president’s tough stance on demonstrations lowered his already not-so-high level of support among African Americans – according to a July poll by the Pew Research Center, about 86% of blacks do not approve of the president’s work, 69% of Hispanics share their opinion.
At the same time, African-American voters prefer Biden over Trump by an overwhelming majority (89% against 7%). Two-thirds of Hispanic voters (66%) support Biden, while 32% support Trump. A similar trend is observed by age groups: young voters aged 18 to 29 speak for the former vice president – 68% versus 28%, Americans from 30 to 49 also mostly support Biden – 60% against 38%.
According to Politico, the current alignment worries the team of the president and Trump himself. The head of the state understands perfectly well that he is not in the best position for his re-election and does not know what to do about it. At present, the presidential campaigners are actively working to eliminate the problems of the current course.
So far, the Trump campaign is more focused on diverting Americans from the problems caused by the coronavirus.
In particular, in this vein, we can consider tough anti-Chinese policy, which resembles the creation of the image of an external enemy for the Americans.
If we talk about the president’s actions in relation to Biden, then Trump’s headquarters, along with the head of the White House, is focused on criticizing the mental abilities of the former vice president. In particular, the American leader actively calls his opponent “sleepy Joe” and promises the United States all sorts of troubles in the event of its failure in the elections, for example, the collapse of exchanges.
“Democrats want to raise some taxes, ultimately all taxes. This will kill the [stock] market, destroy everything we do, including new jobs,” Trump assured, comparing the situation on the stock exchange after the likely victory of a representative of the Democratic Party with a hangover. “If [Biden] is elected, the stock market will be in a state of overhang and will inevitably collapse,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business.
At the same time, Biden partially maintains a calm rhythm in his campaign, striking at the president’s pain points – health problems due to the virus alleged sympathy for Russia and the need to change the policy.
He offers to assess his mental abilities in a debate with Trump, which the current president himself does not refuse.
“I can’t wait to be able to compare my cognitive abilities with the cognitive abilities of the person against whom I am conducting an election campaign,” Biden noted.
However, before the debate begins, one formality needs to be eliminated – both rivals should officially become presidential candidates from their parties. This event should occur at the end of summer during the corresponding congresses of Democrats and Republicans.
Until this time, rivals have to exchange barbs through the media, which so far has not worked too well in favor of Trump. How exactly the president will overcome the crisis and seek voter support is still unknown, any new course of his campaign is still not being traced.
To some extent, it may be beneficial to renew the bias in informing the public about coronavirus, including by restoring daily White House briefings – something Trump’s advisers have been arguing about lately. However, this can only aggravate the position of the president, provoking a wave of criticism from the media because of his extraordinary approach to speeches. While briefings existed, Trump has repeatedly made controversial statements, including about the “use of bleach” against coronavirus.
About the author
Melisa Marzett is a freelance writer at Find Writing Services. As an essay writer, she has written thousands of essays for almost 6 years of working and she has never regretted a day because what she writes brings joy to her readers.